President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s proposed ₦58.47 trillion budget for the 2026 fiscal year has generated mixed reactions, with economists highlighting both its strong points and areas of concern.
Details of the proposal, presented to a joint session of the National Assembly on Friday, show that Security and Defence received the largest allocation at ₦5.41 trillion. This is followed by Infrastructure with ₦3.56 trillion, Education with ₦3.52 trillion, and Health with ₦2.48 trillion.
The budget is based on projected revenue of ₦34.33 trillion, total expenditure of ₦58.18 trillion, and ₦15.52 trillion earmarked for debt servicing.
Key assumptions include an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, daily oil production of 1.84 million barrels, and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar. The proposal represents a significant increase compared to the ₦43.56 trillion and ₦54.99 trillion budgets for the 2024 and 2025 fiscal years, respectively.
Speaking separately to DAILY POST, the Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, and the CEO of SD & D Capital Management, Gbolade Idakolo, assessed the budget’s outlook.
Dr. Yusuf described the 2026 budget as more coherent than those of 2024 and 2025, noting that its assumptions are relatively more cautious and realistic than last year’s. However, he warned that the oil price benchmark and production target remain optimistic when viewed against Nigeria’s historical performance, suggesting that further downward adjustments could strengthen credibility.
He also advised the National Assembly against inflating the budget through constituency projects, stressing that frequent upward revisions often weaken implementation and erode public confidence. According to him, the effectiveness of a budget lies not just in its size but in its credibility.
Yusuf further pointed to persistent weaknesses in non-tax revenue generation by government agencies and called for improved efficiency in this area. While acknowledging the administration’s focus on fiscal consolidation, he expressed concern that debt servicing accounts for nearly half of projected revenue, significantly reducing fiscal space for development spending.
He also urged clarity on how the 2026 budget would align with the recently reenacted 2025 Appropriation Act, warning that overlapping budget frameworks could create confusion and hinder implementation.
Although recurrent expenditure has generally been executed in past budgets, Yusuf noted that poor capital expenditure performance continues to limit the overall economic impact. He added that accountability should extend beyond the federal government to state and local governments, many of which now manage substantial budgets capable of driving development in sectors such as health, education, infrastructure, and agriculture.
On his part, Gbolade Idakolo described the ₦58.46 trillion proposal as a bold move aimed at consolidating recent fiscal reforms, despite expectations that a large portion of capital expenditure would be carried over into 2026.
He commended the emphasis on defence and security, saying improved security is essential for boosting investor confidence and sustaining economic growth. Idakolo also welcomed the strong focus on infrastructure, education, and health, noting that these sectors are critical to job creation, productivity, and human capital development.
According to him, the budget has the potential to stabilise and grow the economy if it is fully implemented with timely release of funds. However, he advised the National Assembly to thoroughly scrutinise all projections and allocations to ensure they are realistic and achievable, thereby avoiding implementation shortfalls.
Overall, both economists agreed that while the 2026 budget shows promise, its success will depend largely on realistic assumptions, disciplined execution, and accountability across all levels of government.
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