The Group Chief Executive Officer of Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Bayo Ojulari, has assured Nigerians that the ongoing price competition in the downstream petroleum sector will eventually work in favour of consumers.
Ojulari said the current volatility in fuel prices is a natural outcome of Nigeria’s shift from near-total reliance on imports to domestic refining.
“Where there is healthy competition, consumers are the ultimate beneficiaries. The market will stabilise, but some tension is expected because we are undergoing a major transition,” he told journalists after briefing President Bola Tinubu in Lagos on Sunday.
His comments come amid an intense price war that has seen petrol prices fall sharply—from over ₦1,200 per litre in November 2024 to as low as ₦739 per litre at some outlets in December 2025. The decline has been driven largely by competition among Dangote Refinery, NNPCL, and independent marketers.
“At the end of the day, Nigerians on the street will benefit,” Ojulari said.
Clarifying NNPCL’s position in the deregulated market, he stressed that under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), the company no longer sets prices or regulates the sector.
“The PIA separated regulation from business. NMDPRA oversees midstream and downstream regulation, while NUPRC handles upstream regulation. Post-PIA, NNPC is not a regulator,” he explained.
Ojulari noted that NNPCL now operates purely as a commercial entity, expected to compete profitably and raise its own financing without federation allocations.
Competition in the sector intensified after Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest single-train refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, began local petrol production in September 2024.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the average retail price of petrol dropped by ₦153 per litre between November 2024 and November 2025. The price war escalated further in December 2025 when Dangote cut its ex-depot price from ₦970 to ₦699 per litre, prompting other marketers to slash prices to remain competitive.
MRS filling stations, Dangote’s retail partner, began selling petrol at ₦739 per litre nationwide, while NNPC outlets reduced prices to between ₦825 and ₦840 per litre. Independent marketers followed suit, some selling at around ₦865 per litre.
However, the sharp price cuts have posed challenges for marketers who bought stock at higher prices and now face losses. The Marketers Association of Nigeria said competition now largely determines customer loyalty.
Ojulari described NNPCL as the “supplier of last resort,” working with all major players, including Dangote Refinery, to ensure consistent supply. He said increased oil and gas production would improve flexibility and participation across the downstream sector.
He acknowledged that the entry of major refineries has disrupted market balance but described it as a positive development.
“Having a major refinery like Dangote operating in-country, alongside NNPC’s rehabilitated facilities, will inevitably impact the market. What matters is how we manage this reality together,” he said.
Ojulari disclosed that crude oil production has risen from 1.5 million barrels per day last year to over 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025, while gas production increased from 6.5 to more than 7 billion standard cubic feet per day.
He said NNPCL aims to reach at least 1.8 million barrels per day in 2026, in line with President Tinubu’s target of 2 million barrels per day by 2027, and to attract over $30 billion in investments by 2030.
Ojulari also revealed that the main line of the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) gas pipeline has been fully welded, including the long-challenging River Niger crossing. The 614-kilometre pipeline is expected to be commissioned in early 2026 to supply gas for power generation, fertiliser production, and industrialisation in northern Nigeria.
“We are in a strong position to move into full implementation,” he said.
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