Nigeria’s exports to the United States dropped by ₦940.98bn in the first nine months of 2025, while imports from the US more than doubled, flipping a trade balance that favoured Nigeria in the same period of 2024, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
An analysis of NBS foreign trade figures for Q1–Q3 2024 and Q1–Q3 2025 shows that Nigeria exported goods worth ₦3.65tn to the US between January and September 2025, down from ₦4.59tn a year earlier. This represents a 20.5 per cent decline. In contrast, imports from the US surged to ₦6.80tn from ₦3.01tn, an increase of 125.5 per cent or ₦3.78tn.
As a result, Nigeria recorded a trade deficit of about ₦3.15tn with the United States in the first nine months of 2025, compared with a ₦1.57tn surplus in the corresponding period of 2024.
The worsening trade position coincided with the introduction of Washington’s “reciprocal” tariff regime, under which US President Donald Trump raised Nigeria’s tariff rate from 14 per cent to 15 per cent. The executive order, signed in late July, took effect on August 7, 2025. While crude oil exports were largely exempted, the higher tariff applied to many non-oil Nigerian products, creating uncertainty for US importers and weakening demand.
Non-oil exports were hit hardest by the policy shift. In the first nine months of 2024, Nigeria’s exports to the US grew steadily each quarter, while imports remained relatively moderate, resulting in consistent trade surpluses. By contrast, 2025 saw exports decline sharply after Q1, while imports rose rapidly throughout the year.
Quarterly data shows that exports fell from ₦1.54tn in Q1 2025 to ₦1.36tn in Q2 and plunged further to ₦743.63bn in Q3. Imports moved in the opposite direction, rising from ₦1.42tn in Q1 to ₦2.16tn in Q2 and then to ₦3.22tn in Q3, significantly widening the trade gap.
Year-on-year figures reveal that exports to the US grew by 17.7 per cent in Q1 2025 but declined by 14.3 per cent in Q2 and collapsed by 56 per cent in Q3. Imports, meanwhile, increased across all quarters, with especially sharp rises in Q2 and Q3.
Product-level data highlights the imbalance. In Q1 2025, Nigeria’s exports to the US were dominated by crude petroleum oils, urea, and jet fuel. By Q2 and Q3, the export basket narrowed significantly to mostly cocoa products, rubber, and small volumes of processed agricultural goods. Imports from the US, however, continued to expand, led by crude petroleum oils, used vehicles, wheat, and industrial inputs.
By mid-2025, the United States had dropped out of Nigeria’s top five export destinations, although it remained one of the country’s largest sources of imports. The figures underscore structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s trade profile and its vulnerability to external policy changes.
FG assures resilience
In September, President Bola Tinubu said his administration was not alarmed by the US tariff measures, citing Nigeria’s economic direction and rising non-oil revenues as buffers against external shocks. “If non-oil revenue is growing, then we have no fear of whatever Trump is doing on the other side,” he said.
Similarly, the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, said Nigeria would avoid retaliatory measures and remain focused on reforms, diversification, and expanding market access. She noted that non-oil exports grew by 24 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025 and that Nigeria was strengthening trade ties within Africa and with countries such as Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE.
Experts’ views
Trade stakeholders and economists have urged Nigeria to see the US tariffs as both a challenge and an opportunity. Some experts argue that the situation could accelerate export diversification and encourage stronger South–South trade partnerships, especially with other countries also affected by US tariffs.
Others downplayed the overall impact, noting that Nigeria’s trade exposure to the US is relatively limited and heavily concentrated in crude oil and a few commodities. However, concerns were raised about US visa restrictions, which analysts described as a more serious long-term obstacle to trade, investment, and business mobility than tariffs.
The latest US travel restrictions, set to take effect from January 1, 2026, will bar holders of several visa categories from entering the country, affecting business travelers, students, and exchange visitors, and adding another layer of strain to Nigeria–US relations.
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